ONTARIO TEACHER SUPPLY AND DEMAND - PROJECTION UPDATE 1996 - December, 1996 prepared for the Ontario Association of Deans of Education TEACHER SUPPLY AND DEMAND: THE COMING DECADE IN ONTARIO __________________________________________________________________ Executive Summary Ontario has experienced periods of serious over and under-supply of teachers associated with the growth and decline of elementary and secondary enrolment as the post-war baby boom and echo have distorted population demographics. The most notable continuing impact is the steady growth in teacher retirements over the next ten years as teachers hired in the 1960's reach the end of their career cycle. This growth in retirements, together with the high level of full- time teacher turn-over and continued modest enrolment growth, will maintain a very high annual teacher replacement need through 2004. Even with assumptions about further increases in pupil- teacher ratio as the current financial retrenchment continues, and allowing for policy driven enrolment and teacher head count declines in Junior Kindergarten and in secondary schools, annual replacement will average 12,000 to 13,000 full-time teachers annually throughout the projection period. Ontario's universities constitute a primary source of current new teacher supply, although out- of-province sources, former teachers, part-time teachers and other sources together contribute a greater proportion of the replacement hirings by boards of education each year. Each source of teacher supply is addressed and projected through the period. Current surplus Ontario educated teachers will be absorbed over the next couple of years, leaving Ontario's universities positioned at about the right level in overall enrolments to meet provincial needs through 2004. To the extent that shortages may emerge in certain areas, small targeted increases in teacher education enrolment or increases in hiring of available teachers from other sources would address the requirements. Even if demand for replacement teachers were somewhat beyond the low demand scenario envisaged, appropriate adjustments in Ontario's teacher education enrolment would be modest and readily accommodated without significant adjustment to the present regionally well distributed teacher education capacity. Although the capacity is at about the right level, a precipitous decline in pre-service teacher applications in the past two years suggests that action is needed to ensure that teacher shortages do not emerge within the next several years as a result of insufficient qualified applicants to the available teacher education places throughout the province. 1.0 Introduction and Historical Overview 1.1 Introduction This update on Ontario teacher supply and demand has been prepared for the Ontario Association of Deans of Education (OADE). The report draws on earlier original studies and analyses (Smith, 1989 and Smith et.al., 1994), together with updated data and modeling provided by the Ontario Ministry of Education and Training.* The report was prepared to assist the OADE with planning for Ontario pre-service teacher education requirements through 2004. Information is presented on current elementary and secondary enrolment projections and other sources of supply of teachers. The report also canvasses major public policy options which may significantly affect the demand for teachers in Ontario. Projections of supply and demand are presented with a focus on identifying the range of annual enrolment which may be appropriate for Ontario teacher education institutions over the projection period. While acknowledging the limits of extended projections in complex social systems, a corridor of high and low teacher education enrolment capacity for Ontario is presented which is considered most likely to avoid serious teacher shortages or significant surpluses with attendant teacher graduate unemployment. 1.2 Ontario Enrolment History Ontario school enrolment rose rapidly through the 1950's and early 1960's, with elementary and then secondary enrolment burgeoning as a result of growth in births and in immigration in the post-war period. Diminished birth rates beginning in the mid-1960's slowed, and temporarily reversed, elementary and then secondary enrolment growth rates in the 1970's and 1980's despite continued substantial immigration to Ontario. The baby boom echo of the 1980's started a further growth trend which is anticipated to continue steadily over the ten year projection period. Figure 1 presents the rise in enrolment in the 1960's, the decline in enrolment beginning in 1970, and the new growth trend from 1985 onwards. Note that the data throughout refers to publicly funded enrolments and full-time teachers (public and separate boards combined) except where otherwise indicated. The early part of the upward trend in secondary enrolment (1985-1987) reflects the extension of secondary funding to the Roman Catholic separate school system. 1.3 Ontario Teachers The Ontario elementary and secondary school teaching force grew rapidly in the 1960's to accommodate the explosion in enrolment. This was followed by a steady state period from 1970 through the mid-1980's, with growth then resuming to follow the enrolment growth and to continue some of the improvements in pupil-teacher ratio (PTR) which had been underway through the 1970's. Figure 2 shows the two periods of rapid growth, with the 15 year plateau in between. __________________________ * Data throughout this report is drawn from MET's Education Statistics, Key Statistics, and the Educator Database. 1.4 Ontario Teacher Education To meet the needs of Ontario's schools, and in the face of serious shortages experienced by boards of education throughout the province, teacher education enrolments were sharply increased in the mid-1960's to meet this urgent public policy need. There was a somewhat belated and hesitant decline through the 1970's as significant teacher surpluses emerged. Some loss of coordination was experienced when teacher education was transferred, mainly in the late 1960's and 1970's, from government-operated colleges to Ontario's universities. Since that time, the universities have maintained enrolment at the lower level more appropriate to the post- baby boom period. Figure 3 presents this history, and conveys the disproportionately large generation of teachers who began their careers in the mid-1960's to early 1970's and are now approaching retirement. 1.5 Teacher Shortages and Surpluses With the population roller coaster of the second half of the century, Ontario has experienced painful teacher shortages and surpluses. The most marked shortage, with its attendant hiring of substantial numbers of unqualified teachers and substantial growth in teacher education enrolment, occurred in the 1960's. The 1970's and early 1980's evidenced major teacher surpluses, as the employment market for teachers flattened dramatically, and this despite significant curtailment of teacher education enrolments. This period corresponded with the transfer of the responsibility for teacher education to Ontario's universities, and permitted a concentration on establishment of the university based programs to strengthen the preparation of new teachers. Despite the lower numbers, many education graduates in these years were unable to obtain teaching positions in Ontario. In the late 1980's a mini-teacher shortage emerged with the confluence of several developments. The baby boom echo was beginning to affect enrolments in the elementary years, public funding was extended to the Roman Catholic separate school system, Kindergarten and Junior Kindergarten programs expanded, funding increased generally to further improve pupil- teacher ratios, and teacher retirements accelerated with an early retirement window that was introduced for teachers permitting retirement at an 87-factor (age plus years of service) rather than the standard 90-factor under the teachers' pension plan. Ontario's universities responded with increased enrolments in the late 1980's and early 1990's, but not before there was another brief period in which unqualified teachers had to be hired in significant numbers to meet the shortages in some boards, especially around the high growth Greater Toronto area. Since 1993, two successive Ontario governments have significantly reduced funding to Ontario's school boards. Together with local taxation limits, this funding restraint resulted in a significant decline in teacher hirings, despite continued enrolment growth. In 1993 through 1995 there were again new teacher surpluses, with recent graduates failing to obtain full-time teaching positions. In 1996, there is preliminary information of renewed teacher hirings in significant numbers by some Ontario boards which will begin to reduce the surplus. 2.0 Teacher Retirements 2.1 Generational Model of Teacher Supply and Demand The dramatic changes in teacher demand which resulted from post-WW II demographics, immigration, and educational funding and program policies was described in Perspectives on Teacher Supply and Demand, 1988-2008 (Smith 1988). The shortage/surplus cycle has had a dramatic impact on the current age profile of Ontario teachers. The new teachers of the 1960's are reaching the end of their career cycle (at about 35 years of service) in rapidly growing numbers through the 1990's, and this will continue to accelerate over the next five years. At the same time, the hiring curbs through the 1970's and early 1980's, has distorted the age and experience distribution, ensuring that there will need to be, on average, a relatively high rate of hiring for the foreseeable future, despite the current financial restraints. 2.2 Current Retirement Projections Teacher retirements began to accelerate in the mid-1980's, rising from a level of about 1000 annually in 1984 to over 2,000 in 1987. MET reports subsequent to 1987 have not distinguished retirements from teacher withdrawals for other reasons. However, as Table 1 presents, annual retirements have grown since then to above 4,500 in 1996. Teacher retirements in Ontario appear to be consistently under-estimated. Based on actuarial data then available from the Teachers' Superannuation Commission, Smith, 1988 estimated that annual retirements would average 2700 in the period 1987 to 1996, and 3600 for 1997 through 2006. Current Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan projections (provided by MET), using conservative actuarial assumptions (for example, that only 50% of teachers reaching the 90- factor will retire in the year in which they are eligible for full retirement), estimated retirement levels for 1995 and 1996 that were 39% lower than those that actually occurred. Despite incentives to continue past one's 90-factor, teachers are steadily retiring at very high rates, and the unusual demographic distribution indicates a steep slope of increasing numbers of retirees through the end of the projection period examined in this report. For the purposes of this study, the OTPP actuarial projections have been adjusted as described in Table 1 and Figure 4, although not to the extent indicated by actual experience of the past two years. It is assumed that the earlier than projected retirement rates will continue, but with a decreasing gap from the actuarial rates, with the two projections merging in 2002. Early retirement will deplete the pool in the later years, making such a convergence appear reasonable. 3.0 Major Teacher Demand Variables 3.1 Enrolment Change Elementary and secondary teacher demand is normally driven substantially by enrolment change as reviewed in earlier sections. Although not examined in detail in this report, in addition to the birth and survival rates and migration patterns which have driven the dramatic enrolment growth, decline, and renewed growth pattern we have seen, school participation rates at different age levels, and grade repetition also contributed in small measure to the enrolment pattern. For example, some of the secondary enrolment growth in the 1960's is attributable to an increase in the average length of schooling for Ontario's population with improved retention. 3.2 Pupil/Teacher Ratio Pupil-teacher ratio has improved appreciably over the past 25 years with a large impact on teacher demand. The declines in enrolment in the 1970's and early 1980's provided an opportunity for school boards to decrease pupil-teacher ratios, especially in the elementary grades where ratios in the 1960's were well above those understood by educators to be consistent with effective learning, especially for less advantaged and younger students. Figure 5 presents the history of elementary and secondary PTR over the past 25 years using school-based FT teachers (and excluding Board office based teachers who are addressed separately below). Elementary PTR declined significantly, from about 25/1 pupils to teachers in 1970 to about 18/1 in 1992. Secondary PTR has been much more constant throughout the period, evidencing a modest decline from about 16.5/1 in the early period to about 15/1 in the late 1980's and early 1990's. Various policy initiatives underlay these changes, most notably the commitment of more resources to the early years generally and increasing JK and Kindergarten programs, and including increased special education, ESL, inner city and other resources. The financial retrenchment of the 1990's has already resulted in some increase in PTR as school boards cope with government budget cuts. Elementary PTR has increased from 17.7 in 1991 to 19.2 in 1995 (more than an 8% increase) and secondary PTR increased from 15.1 to 16.0 (about a 6% increase). It is of interest to note that school boards have been much more aggressive over the same period as they work to reduce non-classroom teachers, supervisory, administrative and consulting staff. Although we have not examined other non-classroom cost controls, it is noteworthy that there has been a 40% decrease in non-classroom teachers, including supervisory, consulting and administrative staff over a four year period from 1990 to 1995 (see Table 2, Figure 6). 3.3 Teacher Withdrawals Our understanding of teacher acquisitions and withdrawals is somewhat limited because of a lack of detailed data maintained and published by MET over the period 1986 to the present. MET recognizes this problem, and is planning to collect more detailed information beginning with this year. Teachers withdraw from full-time publicly supported elementary and secondary schools for a variety of reasons. Although retirement is a rapidly increasing factor in boards' loss of teaching staff each year, it is instructive for a more comprehensive understanding of turnover to look back to 1986 when much more complete information was available than today on the destinations of full-time teachers who left full-time teaching. Table 3 and Figure 7 present the destinations of the 6,372 teachers who left full-time teaching in Ontario's publicly supported schools in 1986. In addition to retirements, fully 4.6% of Ontario's teachers (4,242) left full-time teaching for family reasons, illness or death, further study, teaching outside the Ontario public system, other work or other reasons. More recent data made available by MET, although at a global level without the detailed breakdown of destinations, indicates that the incidence of non-retirement withdrawal has increased further to about 6.1% of the teaching force each year (7,350 full-time teachers in 1995), with a withdrawal rate of 6.4% at the elementary level and of 5.8% in secondary. Although retirements constitute a significant and growing factor in overall teacher withdrawal today, an even larger demand for replacement teachers each year still arises for these other reasons. Table 4 projects overall teacher withdrawal through 2004, drawing on projected retirements and assuming a constant 6.1% for non-retirement withdrawals. Some active members of the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan are not full-time teachers. Based on MET analysis, it is assumed that 93% of those projected to retire each year retire directly from full-time teaching. Assuming constant PTR, and hence some modest growth in full-time teacher workforce, total replacement requirements rise from about 11,500 in 1996 to more than 13,000 in 2004. This is a very high replacement requirement rate, with 9.5% to 10% of the entire full-time teaching profession turning over annually. Retirement ratios and other withdrawals are at approximately the same levels for both elementary and secondary teachers, such that demand can be assumed to be in the 9.5% to 10% range for both elementary and secondary hirings throughout the period. 4.0 Impact of Alternative Policies on Range of Teacher Demand In addition to retirement and other withdrawal, overall teacher demand will include the impact of various policies which affect PTR across the system. This study addresses three major policy issues which may have significant impact on PTR and thus on the total full-time teacher workforce. 4.1 Compression of secondary curriculum It is anticipated that compression of the secondary curriculum to four years may result in a reduction of up to 60,000 secondary school students annually once the revised curriculum is fully phased in with students pursuing the reduced curriculum at all grade levels. One needs to make a variety of assumptions about flexibility of teachers and distribution of subject specializations to anticipate that there will be a direct saving in full-time teachers required proportionate to the enrolment decline. Such savings may not be achieved, even well after the new curriculum is phased in. Nevertheless, as a step to assessing the low end of teacher demand over the period, the analysis presented below assumes that it is feasible to reduce the number of teachers at the secondary level in direct proportion to the reduction in enrolment. 4.2 Decline in JK enrolment Junior Kindergarten enrolment in 1994 was approximately 100,000. Given the elimination of provincial support for this programming, it is assumed that the growth in JK participation will stop. To establish the low end of teacher demand, it is further assumed that there will be a 25% loss in Junior Kindergarten enrolment over the period. 4.3 Workload increases The provincial government has raised as a public policy issue whether there is too much teacher preparation time outside the classroom. Again as an aid in establishing the low end of teacher demand, this study assumes that there could be as much as a further 5% increase in PTR which results from a decrease in teacher preparation time at both the elementary and secondary levels. This is in addition to the 8% increase in elementary PTR and 6% increase in secondary PTR since 1991. 4.4 Two Year Teacher Education Program The Royal Commission on Learning (1994) report recommended the strengthening of pre-service teacher education programs through adding a second year to the professional program. Some pilot two year programs, both consecutive and concurrent formats, were begun in 1995. Were this recommendation to be implemented, there would likely be significant impact on teacher supply for at least two years. To illustrate, were universities asked to convert the programs to two years without significant additional resources, there might be a transition in which one-half of a year's intake is admitted to the one year program and the second half to the new two year program. Were this implementation approach taken, the supply of graduates would be cut in half for two years -- the first year being just the half cohort who pursued the one year program, and the second year being the initial half cohort pursuing the new two year program. The availability of some concurrent programming would lessen this impact somewhat, but the distribution is heavily weighted toward consecutive enrolments such that the implementation illustrated would approach a 40% decline in supply of new teacher graduates for two years. A one year conversion would be even more problematic with supply cut in the transition year to the 15% who would graduate from ongoing concurrent programs. Given that it is unlikely that there would be significant additional funding to enable universities to maintain the supply of teacher graduates through a transition to the two year program, significant one to three year declines in new teacher graduates could be anticipated, depending on whether and to what extent a two year program were phased in. The projections developed in the analysis which follows do not take into account any impact which would result from the introduction of a two year teacher education program. Given the relative balance of demand and supply described below, the shortage which would result would be a significant short term issue for school boards. 4.5 Differentiated Staffing The Royal Commission on Learning and others have suggested a differentiated staffing pattern within elementary and secondary schools which would increase the participation of non-teachers in delivering school programs. This suggestion has not been enunciated as policy, and has not been quantified in a manner in which it could be taken into account in this study. To the extent that such a policy were implemented, it would reduce demand for Ontario teachers somewhat. With the foregoing assumptions, Tables 5a and 5b present a policy neutral projection of full- time teachers (a projection which does not assume additional savings from secondary compression, JK enrolment declines and workload increases) and a projection which assumes these savings. The first establishes for our purposes a high end demand and the second a low end demand for teachers over the period. The low end demand assumptions would return the elementary PTR to levels of the mid-1980's, likely eliminating many of the improvements in resources achieved in the past decade. Secondary PTR would also increase to the levels of the mid-1980's. Table 6 and Figure 8 present the net annual demand using the high and low end models of full- time teacher projections. At the high end, turnover and enrolment growth result in a need for between 12,600 and 14,000 full-time teacher replacements annually through to 2004, with an average of about 13,500. At the low end, the demand ranges mainly between 12,000 and 13,000, with one year of lower demand corresponding with the final year of enrolment declines relating to contraction of JK and secondary enrolment, and an average of about 12,300. 4.6 Early Retirement as a Timely Adjustment Mechanism As noted earlier, Ontario's teachers have taken up early retirement incentives in significant numbers in the past. The early retirement window of the late 1980's contributed to the teacher shortage in those years. The circumstances are quite different today from the late 1980's such that it may be timely again to use early retirement incentives for Ontario teachers as an important public policy initiative. There are several reasons for this. i) Significant further financial reductions are anticipated. Early retirements of teachers at the high end of salary ranges would enable school boards to achieve annual cost savings through replacement with new teachers with significantly lower compensation costs. One time costs of the early retirement incentives (such as an 87-factor window), would result in savings over 10 to 12 years in which the replacement teachers' compensation is lower than that of those who retired. This cost saving would protect pupil teacher ratios such that the savings would have reduced impact on the classroom. ii) There are significant obstacles to school boards achieving the full savings which could be available at the secondary level with compression of the curriculum. Savings will be delayed because of a lack of flexibility in redeploying teachers from subjects which are in the decline under the revised curriculum. The increased turn-over associated with an early retirement window would provide more opportunities to hire replacement teachers in the areas of highest need emerging with the changing curriculum. iii) As we have seen, there is a surplus of teachers in Ontario which emerged over the past few years as the public sector financial restraints of the 1990's have been implemented in school boards. An early retirement window at this time would provide full-time employment in the profession for those who have not yet found permanent positions. As well, the availability of the surplus pool means that there is less likelihood of a shortage at this time. Faculties of education could increase enrolment in selected areas as may or may not be necessary depending on the implementation of an early retirement option. 5.0 Major Teacher Supply Variables 5.1 Ontario Teacher Education Graduates As noted in section 1.3 and Figure 3, Ontario teacher education enrolment history reflects the history of teacher shortages and surpluses. The provincial teacher education enrolment level is the major instrument available for public policy response to the ongoing need to renew the teaching profession. As we have reviewed, Ontario's teacher graduates have gone through periods of boom and bust in the provincial teacher employment market. Teaching opportunities were abundant in the 1960's and latter 1980's. The 1970's through mid-1980's, and the past few years in the 1990's, provided a much more limited Ontario teaching employment market for new graduates. To understand Ontario teacher education enrolment as a source of replacement teacher supply, it is useful to examine the post-graduation occupations of a cohort of teacher graduates. Smith, et.al., 1994 conducted an in-depth study of the 1990-91 Ontario cohort of teacher graduates. This year was relatively typical of a year in which there was substantial employment available for new teachers in Ontario, and one which was not at a peak of surplus or shortage of teachers. It was a year in which the mini-teacher shortage of the late 1980's was beginning to turn to the mini-teacher surplus of the past several years. This study is useful for our purposes in that it included surveys of graduates in the Fall immediately following their graduation and again in the Fall one year later, thus providing a portrait of the first two years as professionally qualified teachers. Of prime interest to this review, the following findings are noted: i) The overall success rate in obtaining teaching employment (full-time, part-time or supply, and in either publicly supported or private schools) was 92% by the second year following graduation. ii) Fully 61% of the study's respondents had obtained full-time teaching positions in Ontario publicly funded schools and almost a further 4% in private schools and / or in schools outside Ontario, for a total 65% full-time teaching employment. iii) Part-time (7% of respondents) and supply (20%) positions were significant destinations for the recent graduates. Among the part-time teachers, about half of them were working half-time and some were working part-time by choice. Almost all of the supply teaching group wished to teach full-time and were determined to continue to find full- time teaching employment. iv) Of the 28% of graduates who had not entered full-time or part-time teaching, but including those who were supply teaching, two-thirds had unsuccessfully sought teaching positions over the previous year, 1/3 had not, and 18% did not have plans for teaching in the near future but rather were occupied with further study or family responsibilities, or were not on the teacher employment market for reasons of illness, travel, employment in non-teaching positions and other reasons. v) Although those who had obtained employment in teaching were almost unanimous in reporting a high or moderate degree of satisfaction in teaching, about 14% indicated that they did not intend, or were uncertain about their plans, to continue teaching on a permanent basis. Based on this study, one may conclude that of the 99% of teacher education students who graduate, one can conclude that there is a group of perhaps 15% to 20% who will not be available for full-time publicly funded teaching positions in Ontario. Some of these choose part- time teaching or teaching in private school or other jurisdictions, and others pursue non- teaching occupations, many of which profit from the communications and other education knowledge obtained through teacher education (such as the private sector training and development positions, social services with children, child care and so forth). Ministry of Education and Training data tracking the full-time teaching status of teacher education graduates verifies this conclusion. There is a pattern of maximum participation in full-time teaching at a stage three to five years after graduation. The highest proportion of graduates obtaining full-time positions since the early 1980's was among the 1988 graduates who entered the most recent teacher shortage market and peaked at 82% teaching employment by 1991. This can be considered an approximate definition of "full-employment" in publicly funded full-time teaching in the province. Table 7 includes teacher supply from this source which assumes a 99% graduation rate and an 82% graduate availability for full-time teaching positions. It is interesting to consider this teaching employment rate in relation to other professions. Smith, et.al., 1994 noted that medical graduates pursue full-time careers in medicine at higher rates, nurses and engineers have professional employment rates comparable to teachers, and lawyers pursue non-legal careers to a greater extent than teachers engage in non-teaching employment. When one considers that the definitions used in gauging teacher graduates employment in teaching (by MET, in this report, and in many others) consider a teacher graduate to be employed in teaching only if one is full-time employed in publicly funded education in the province. The rate of employment success historically, considering this strict definition, comparable rates for other professions, and the transferability and importance of teaching skills to other fields, is quite impressive. 5.2 Unemployed/Underemployed Ontario Educated Teachers In times of teacher surplus there is a significant source of replacement teachers in those recent graduates who are continuing to actively seek full-time employment in teaching and are currently not employed in teaching or are only employed in part-time or supply positions. MET has developed a very useful approach to defining the likely size of this source. Noting that most new hires to full-time positions are of individuals whose qualification year has been in the past three years, the Ministry has projected the numbers of recent graduates who are in a pool available for full-time teaching employment. Further, with an assumption of constant teacher education graduation rates and a gradual return from the low rates of employment of graduates in the past two years to full-employment (defined as 82%), MET has projected the size of each year's "unemployed and employable" available pool of qualified teachers. This pool is included in Table 7. There has been a significant increase in qualified but unemployed Ontario educated teachers over the past several years. These numbers are fully reflected in the projection model. At the same time, it is worth noting that there is a recent increase in out-of province recruiting of Ontario by such jurisdictions as California and New Zealand, among others. Although the exchange of teachers across jurisdictions is a positive contributor to renewal, there is a loss to Ontario when many of the best and brightest among new teacher graduates are recruited to other provinces or countries. 5.3 Out-of-Province Educated Teachers Out-of-province educated teachers (both Ontarians who have studied abroad and non- Ontarians) have been a steady source of replacement teachers for Ontario boards. This source of teachers varies significantly from year to year, partly affected by employment patterns and the state of the economy in other jurisdictions, but significantly by the Ontario replacement rates and the availability of Ontario based teachers. In recent years this source peaked at 1,579 in the teacher shortage year of 1988 and bottomed-out at 933 in the surplus year of 1993. In the supply model presented in Table 7, this source is held constant at 1,000, a level which appears to be available and sought by boards even in years in which there is an adequate supply of Ontario based teachers. Some out-of-province educated teachers obtain Temporary Letters of Standing and in subsequent years do not hold full-time teaching positions. Using Temporary Letter of Standing and employment records, MET has projected the availability of this source for replacement teachers in a manner parallel to the "unemployed and employable" Ontario educated teachers described above. This source is identified in Table 7. 5.4 Re-entrant Teachers and Others School boards also turn to qualified teachers in Ontario who taught full-time at some point in their careers, but have not taught in the past year or perhaps have only taught on a supply basis. Again this is a highly variable source. In the shortage year of 1990, for example, 4,706 replacement teachers came from this source, whereas as in the surplus year of 1993 the numbers had dropped to 1,915. Table 7 assumes a base level of 2,000 teachers available from this source. As with the out-of-province source, this pool can be expanded somewhat in times of shortage through intensive recruitment and most particularly by drawing on the supply teacher pool (of course, in such situations there would be a greater need to replenish the supply pool from recent teacher graduates and other sources). Replacement teacher records include the movement of Board teachers from part-time positions to full-time positions and from board office positions to school-based positions. Based on a fairly steady number from this source, Table 7 reflects 2,600 annually from this source throughout the projection period. 5.5 Summary of Sources of Teacher Supply Table 7 presents the projection supply model with the foregoing components. The annual supply declines slightly from about 15,500 to about 13,500 through the period, reflecting in the main the absorption of the excess pool of graduates and out-of-province educated residents over the next several years. 6.0 Maintaining Ontario Teacher Education Capacity 6.1 Supply and Demand for Ontario Teachers through 2004 Drawing on the foregoing discussion of demand for new teachers and on sources of supply, Table 8 brings the two models together to project the surplus / deficit over the projection period. Under the "high demand" scenario there is very near an exact balance of supply and demand by 1998 when the surplus of the past few years has been substantially absorbed. Such a mathematical balance would likely not be satisfactory. One could anticipate shortages in some regions and in some teaching areas given the nature of such an open and decentralized set of teacher labour markets. This effective shortage could be addressed through modestly increasing numbers of out-of-province teachers and turning to a greater extent to supply teacher pools as indicated in the discussion above. Alternatively, modest increases in selective areas and programs in teacher education enrolment could address any linger specific shortages which emerged. The "low demand" scenario presents a small surplus of supply over demand once the larger surplus of the past few years is absorbed. This is in the order of 11% to 14% beyond replacement requirements. Given the nature of labour markets, the small surplus over the projection period under this scenario is on the whole a satisfactory situation. There would neither be a period of very high teacher unemployment nor serious shortages leading to a requirement for the hiring of unqualified teachers. The low end assumptions anticipate an uneven demand in the final three years of the projection as a result of the final reductions in positions related to compression of the secondary curriculum, decline of JK and increased pupil teacher ratios. Were such a minor unevenness to occur, surpluses in one year would be easily absorbed in the subsequent year or two. Much more important for planning purposes is the trend which is evident even in the low demand scenario toward a teacher shortage toward the end of the projection period. It may be appropriate in these latter years for teacher education enrolment to increase to a modest extent across the province, especially considering the continued increase in teacher retirements for several years beyond the period under study. 6.2 Teacher Education Enrolment in 1996 Ontario's ten universities which offer teacher education programs in English and French are distributed throughout the four main regions of the province. In 1995-96, enrolments stood at 5,714 overall (Table 9 and Figure 9), about the same level that has been maintained throughout the 1990's (high of 5,891 and low of 5,416). An examination of the distribution of Primary/Junior, Junior/Intermediate and Intermediate/Senior enrolments by region indicates again a substantial availability in each region. There appears to be an appropriate level of availability of teacher education places throughout the regions of Ontario. 6.3 Meeting Projected Supply of Teachers through 2004 The low and high demand projections of teacher supply and demand used a constant teacher education enrolment at the 1995-96 level. In summary, with this assumption it appears that there may be some need for selective regional or program increases in teacher education enrolment under the high demand scenario. Under the low demand scenario, it is unlikely that significant decreases in enrolment would be warranted given the modest nature of the over- supply. Should even the pessimistic view of increasing PTR in the low demand scenario be exceeded, it is unlikely that this would be to such an extent that more than modest declines from the current overall provincial teacher education enrolment would be warranted. 6.4 Post-Secondary Policy Context The current provincial review of Ontario post-secondary education restates five broad objectives which have been set for colleges and universities: excellence in quality; accessibility to qualified students; a range of programs and institutions appropriate to Ontario's needs; accountability to the public, students and government; and responsiveness to evolving needs. While not minimizing the importance of the meeting other three objectives for Ontario's teacher education institutions, accessibility and responsiveness are the objectives which are most appropriate to consider in relation to teacher supply and demand. Given the long term high demand for replacement teachers over the projection period, it appears appropriate that there continue to be a substantial availability of teacher education programs preparing prospective teachers for both elementary and secondary teaching in each of the major regions of the province. Historically, teaching has been the most accessible profession across socio-economic groups in Ontario, often serving as a primary route for social mobility for young people from families who have little or no history of post-secondary education or the professions. With the rapid and significant increases in tuition, it is increasingly important that more students have the option of pursuing teacher education while living at home to minimize travel and living expenses. This applies whether we are considering younger university students aspiring to a teaching career, or those for whom teaching is a move from some other career. 6.5 Applications to Teacher Education Despite the brief periods in which it was necessary to hire unqualified teachers in significant numbers, Ontario has enjoyed the benefits of a very high level of interest in teaching as a career. The relatively high status of the teaching profession, the quality of the working environment and the salary, benefits and employment security historically available to teachers have ensured that applications to teacher education places far outstripped the numbers of places available. For many years, Ontario experienced a ratio of about three to five applicants to every place available in teacher education programs. Significant numbers of the unsuccessful applicants accept offers from U.S., Australian and New Zealand universities, with the potential of a permanent loss to Ontario of highly motivated teachers. More recently, the number of applicants to Ontario teacher education programs has plummeted, with the possibility of some universities not being able to fill the available places. In the past two years the drop has been especially precipitous. Five years ago about 25,000 individuals applied to Ontario's universities for teacher education. For entry in 1996, this dropped to approximately 10,000 individuals and, for 1997, to an estimated 6,000 individuals. The drop is so sharp this year that concerted action is warranted to re-establish the attraction of the teaching profession to ensure that a shortage of qualified teachers does not emerge in a few years when the current short term surplus of recent graduates is absorbed. Should this trend continue, there may be a significant shortfall in teacher supply which is not reflected in this analysis. 7.0 Conclusion and Implications for Ontario's Teacher Education Institutions Beyond the question of the adequacy of the regional distribution of programs in Ontario, we have examined in this study the likely upper and lower range of need for teacher education graduates in the province over the next decade. It appears that there is a likely need for somewhere in the range of 10% increase or decrease from current levels for the foreseeable future, and this in selective areas or regions where minor shortages or over-supply emerges. This variability is such that the following conclusions can be drawn: i) Ontario universities' current teacher education faculties and colleges are well situated to meet the needs for Ontario teachers for the foreseeable future; ii) more specifically, if demand is at the lower level of the projection over a period of time, it is within a range that could be readily accommodated through short term reductions in intake to current university programs and would not necessitate more drastic or centrally coordinated action such as closure of one or more programs; and iii) at the same time, if demand for new teachers is at the higher level of the projection range, current university programs could be reasonably expected to be able to meet the need by an increase in enrolments for a period of time. iv) the one potentially serious problem which may emerge is a long term continuation of the low level of interest in teaching which has emerged in the past two years. Considering the various sources of supply of new teachers for Ontario's elementary and secondary schools, as well as the likely range of demand for new teachers over the next ten years, the current capacity for teacher education is at an appropriate level and is distributed appropriately across ten universities to meet the needs for access to the profession throughout the major regions of the province. This report considers teacher education in relation to supply and demand for teachers in Ontario. Of course, pre-service teacher education is only one aspect of the teacher education curriculum that must be addressed regionally by the ten universities with faculties, schools or colleges of education. The service mission of teacher education institutions includes responsibility for in-service education and graduate studies which together provide for ongoing professional development of teachers as life long learners in their profession. As teachers mature and develop roots in their communities, the prospects for mobility for study lessen. Regional accessibility is, therefore, very important beyond pre-service teacher education. The distribution of teacher education institutions across the province provides accessibility for teachers at all stages of their careers. Tables from the study are available in hard copy by request to fmcintyre@oct.ca 2 1 21